The latest findings from the ChangeWave Alliance show that 9% of respondents are likely to buy an iPhone when it launches sometime next month. ChangeWave surveyed one of the largest samples yet, nearly 3,500 people.
The most interesting result from their study reveals that the number of people preparing to change carriers in the coming months is increasing, likely due to the iPhone Effect.
ChangeWave goes so far as to say, “Apple’s iPhone rocks the cell phone industry.”
In the article that details its findings, ChangeWave is obviously excited about the iPhone’s potential:
7% say they are likely to buy the iPhone as a gift for someone else. These are big numbers, especially when you consider the worldwide market for cell phones is around 1 billion and Apple’s goal is to get to 1% of that market in year one – which would mean selling about 10 million phones.
The iPhone’s overall integration of iPod, Phone, Camera and Email/Internet capability (28%) remains the top selling point among likely buyers.
Clearly the current results, while similar to our January survey findings, provide strong evidence that Apple should exceed its iPhone sales goals for 2008 – providing the device lives up to consumer expectations.
Ah, look at that huge caveat, “providing the device lives up to consumer expectations.” That’s the rub, isn’t it?
Anything and everything has to live up to expectations and this is where Apple has made a huge strategic mistake. It’s given us too much time to wonder, speculate, complain, diss, research and think about the iPhone.
Announcing the Apple iPhone 6 months in advance has certainly helped spur massive interest and led to pent-up demand.
At the same time, however, we’ve had so much time to contemplate how cool (or uncool) it is, that the bar has been raised impossibly high.
How on earth can it live up to expectations at this point? If it’s anything short of stupendously amazing, people will be disappointed.
But the device itself is not all that ChangeWave looked at:
Currently, Verizon (30%) holds the market share lead among our respondents while AT&T’s Cingular (27%) – which is Apple’s exclusive service provider for the United States – is in second.
We note that third place Sprint/Nextel (12%) has fallen 1 point to a new low. But going forward we find a dramatic turn of events.
Cingular (28%; up 6 points) has surged ahead of Verizon in terms of future planned buying among consumers and is now the top choice among those likely to switch service providers.
Verizon (22%; down 3 points) has continued to trend downward among this critically important group – falling to second place for the first time since we began asking this question in a ChangeWave survey.
Whether or not people actually buy an iPhone, the trends ChangeWave is describing suggest that Cingular is going to see an increase in subscriberships in the near future, while Verizon will see a dip. ChangeWave isn’t shy about saying that this is probably the result of the iPhone.
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You are absolutely correct Sean – 6 months is far too long for Apple to allow consumers to dream and speculate about how great the iPhone could be, and there is almost no way for it to live up to the hype. I can understand them wanting to create a buzz for their product, but I think that this move could end up biting them in the end.
Personally, I won’t be getting an iPhone – not because I don’t want one, but because Cingular doesn’t offer service in Alaska…
Hi Brandon.
If your only reason for not getting an iPhone is because of coverage, heads up, Cingular now has coverage in Anchorage, Juneau and Fairbanks.
Apparently they’re rolling out even more coverage in the coming months.
Lack of coverage isn’t my only reason for not wanting to get an iPhone – they are also dang expensive!
If Cingular is adding service in Anchorage, then it’s news to me. It would be a welcome addition, as our current options for cell phone providers are rather limited.
Well it’s official, Cingular does have coverage in Anchorage, Alaska.
I checked the website and also called and spoke with a representative, so you’re golden for coverage.
However, the iPhone is not a phone I’d personally want.
Yeah, it’s going to be all shiny and fun but all the reports I’m reading, it’s going to be a sucktacular phone.
Very cool, thanks for the info Sean. Like you said, the iPhone is not something I would likely buy – if nothing else, it will be nice to get some more competition up here in the cell phone market.
You’re welcome Brandon.
Cingular and AT&T have some really nice coverage and they offer many GSM phones as well.
Who is your current provider?
It’s funny that everyone thinks the iPhone is too expensive, when you have other phones like the Treo and Moto Q with retails of around the same price.
I’m currently with Cellular One, who have been notorious for poor customer service.
Hi J Phill. I think if you purchase the iPhone outright when it comes out, it will be expensive, around $400.00 – $600.00 USD but if you go with a contract, it will be less.
I end up purchasing phones outright myself so I’m not stuck in a contract and can move around providers as needed.
Even though they look cool and all, I will not be getting an iPhone when they come out.
Well I definitely made my switch to Cingular about a month ago, so I’m iPhone ready!